PMAY (Pradhan Mantri Aawas Yojana) is once again in the news after the Union Budget 2023-24. But a project that should have been seen as a mission is in the news for some wrong reasons. It’s not just the fact that the Government of India has not clarified its achievements with Housing for All by 2022, but Track2Realty finds there are data discrepancies with the project as well.
The Union Budget 2023-24 has by and large ignored the long standing and some immediate concerns (even needs than wants) of the Indian real estate sector. The Finance Minister has not only ignored the supply side of the business, but also didn’t bother to address the demand side, that is the home buyers. Ironically, the leading voices of the sector are still happy with some of the intangible gains even though tangible benefits are non-existent.
The Union Budget this time would be the last full budget ahead of the General Elections due next year. The real estate sector is yet again parroting the old demands, with the only difference being that the concerns of the home buyers too finds a place in their wish list. The developers have come to realise that the home buyers can no longer be ignored as they are the most necessary in the real estate business cycle.
The statistics are scary for any salaried class across the cities of India who has an EMI to pay for his home purchase. The Indian Chamber of Commerce has estimated that the real estate would be witness to 65% defaults from the buyers of under construction projects due to Coronavirus hit lockdown. The estimation is not without its logical reasons. A CII snap poll of the CEOs finds that 52 percent of the companies surveyed foresee job losses, in their respective sectors.
Apart from the top cities, Tier 2 & 3 cities are also on the radar of many PE funds which see these cities actively driving retail going forward. At least 36% (nearly USD 1 bn) retail-focused funds went to cities like Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Bhubaneshwar, Chandigarh, Nagpur and Mohali. In 2019, ANAROCK Capital was instrumental in Virtuous Retail South Asia (a JV between Singapore’s PE firm Xander Group and Dutch institutional investor APG) concluding a USD 100 mn deal with TRIL for two retail malls – one each in Nagpur and Amritsar.
There has been a slump in the market. Huge unsold inventory has forced firms to not increase their rates. As a result, prices have remained range bound. With fewer launches, market is ready for homebuyers willing to take the buying decision. The unsold inventory during first nine months (July-September) of 2019 was 444,673 units, registering a small drop as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. While there has been a revival of sorts in sales since 2018, developers are still not out of the woods.
Indian real estate is still a viable and fairly safe long-term investment option. Investors with a short-term view on ‘instant returns’ need to look elsewhere, but most other asset classes are quite volatile in nature and will continue to remain so. Indian residential real estate is a long-time favourite of resident Indians and NRIs, and recent trends suggest a positive outlook for this asset class going forward. Property prices have bottomed out and cannot possibly reduce further, especially since construction costs are gradually heading north.
I am today seriously wondering whether all the celebrating and self-congratulating developers have indeed got “Exclusive” draft of the policy of land acquisition in Kashmir? Does it include construction facing Dal Lake of Srinagar that is Green Belt? Have they done their business calculations and cost & benefit analysis over there? There are more questions than what the builders could answer at this point of time. But what could be vouchsafed is the fact that all these euphoric overtones are premature. None of the industry voices from the matured sectors with more potential to pull off in the State have displayed this kind of immaturity.
While consolidation has been an ongoing phenomenon for some time, recent mergers, acquisitions and joint developments are underscoring this trend like never before. The Indian residential sector saw a series of disruptions in the last two to three years, with revolutionary reforms like DeMo, RERA and GST remarkably altering the way real estate business is conducted. A natural by-product of this upheaval was consolidation, with fly-by-night developers completely vanishing and small players merging with big ones.
Once completed, Jewar International Airport will not only ease traffic at Delhi’s IGI Airport but also create multiple job opportunities and give decent impetus to the property market in Noida, Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway. These markets have been reeling under tremendous pressure over the last three to four years, and require a fresh injection of opportunity and intent to overcome this slump.