Realty sector may appear to be bullish and project that downside is over with rosy forecast ahead, yet the decline in fortune is far from being over. As a matter of fact, the learning in the last four years has made most of the leading players to restructure their project portfolio and shed the flab.
The Indian banks have been hit the worst with the downturn of the real estate sector. Even after restructuring the loans to the developers, they have a collective deficit of Rs. 7 lakh crore. With spiraling input costs & property prices, demand in the real estate sector has been on a steady downfall. Given the declining demand, it is is unlikely that the real estate companies will be able to repay their bank loans, especially since banks are the only source of funds for the sector.
Tracking the sentiment is not that easy in the business of Indian real estate. There is no ideal predictive model that could assess the sentiments of both the developers as well as the buyers. The leading voices of the sector has never been very consistent with their budget wish list and the post budget customary note. The most important stakeholders, the home buyers, are more often than not completely ignored when it comes to sentiment assessment post the Union Budget.
It was expected to be a future ready budget and the overtones in the power corridors were also self-congratulatory in advance. It finally turned out to be pretty ordinary budget for the real estate sector. The stakeholders are nevertheless looking for the silver lining here and there. The most critical stakeholder, the home buyer, is pretty disappointed with the Union Budget 2021-22.
Union Budget every year is the time when all the stakeholders of the Indian economy look up to the Finance Minister with optimism. Track2Realty noted that across the industries the wants & needs of the demand & supply side are not as juxtaposed as with the real estate. While the developers lobby hard to get the best deal out of the Union Budget, the buyers have their own set of choices and concerns. The Finance Minister is expected to walk a tightrope to balance the concerns of various stakeholders.
The statistics are scary for any salaried class across the cities of India who has an EMI to pay for his home purchase. The Indian Chamber of Commerce has estimated that the real estate would be witness to 65% defaults from the buyers of under construction projects due to Coronavirus hit lockdown. The estimation is not without its logical reasons. A CII snap poll of the CEOs finds that 52 percent of the companies surveyed foresee job losses, in their respective sectors.
The real estate developers had a sigh of relief when the Government of India heeded to their demands for declaring Coronavirus hit construction under Force Majeure. The Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured the sector to issue an advisory to States and Union Territories and their regulatory authorities to extend the registration and completion date Suo-Moto by six months for all registered projects expiring on or after March 25, 2020 without individual applications.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.
Contrary to the general perception that the eco system is getting tougher for the builders due to home buyers’ activism, vigilante media and judicial intervention, the facts suggest that the developers have been given too long ropes to cross the bridge over the buyers’ interests. As a matter of fact, there are many instances of amnesty to the developers in the last few years.
Many of the homebuyers in their desperate instinct are thinking of immediately stopping EMIs (Equated Monthly Installments) to banks. However, many of them are conscious of the fact that stopping EMI is not a solution. If buyers stop servicing their home loans (as they are not sure if they will get a house), it may impact their credit rating.