There is no denying that the world has changed for the real estate in this part of the market. Of course, there are acceptances with degree varying, denials and even reluctance to adapt to the new normal. However, what can’t be argued is the fact that the market forces are clearly signaling the paradigm shift from the existing denial & resistance to change.
In his budget wish list, Amit Modi, Director, ABA Corp & President (Elect), CREDAI Western UP, points out that the real estate sector in India has been through one of the most difficult periods last year due the pandemic effected slowdown in the economy. While there was an upward trajectory in the last quarter of year 2020, due to correction in prices, availability of affordable home loans and the general realization towards the importance of having an adequate shelter during the pandemic, but to seriously start the process of sector revival, there is an urgent and definitive need for reforms from the forthcoming Budget.
New homes supply and sales showed a significant improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Oct–Dec) in line with the ongoing economic recovery with government’ initiatives and increased market confidence providing an added growth impetus.
Beyond the pessimism & optimism and, to some extent, more than expected recovery post the Covid-19 lockdown, the fact remains that 2020 has been by and large the most unforgettable year for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. The old timers in the business even maintain that this has been even worse year than the global economic collapse after the Lehman crisis in 2008.
For generations, real estate leaders were cautious in changing their business models. But in recent years there has been a significant change. So far the numbers have been on the lower side, but Covid 19, has initiated companies to adopt digital solutions at an unprecedented pace. According to a survey, digitisation is taking precedence across the sector and more than 90 percent of the occupiers and developers are aiming to bring a technological shift in their business operations within the next five years.
It is not just the fiscal performance or the stock market resilience that have elevated Godrej Properties to the coveted brand leadership across India. The performance has been remarkable and ever improving on various scale leading to better consumer experience and consumer connect. In a gloomy market of uncertainty, Godrej Properties looks most promising to meet the delivery commitments as well. Last, but not the least, while most of the corporate entities found it altogether challenging turf in the business of real estate, Godrej appears to be a natural real estate brand beyond its market presence in other businesses.
The affordable housing segment, which gained significant traction over the last few years, may also take a hit by COVID-19. The outbreak will significantly affect affordable housing’s target audience. With limited income and unemployment fears, buyers of affordable housing may defer purchase decisions, leading to an estimated 1-2% rise in unsold stock within this segment in 2020.
Apart from the top cities, Tier 2 & 3 cities are also on the radar of many PE funds which see these cities actively driving retail going forward. At least 36% (nearly USD 1 bn) retail-focused funds went to cities like Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Bhubaneshwar, Chandigarh, Nagpur and Mohali. In 2019, ANAROCK Capital was instrumental in Virtuous Retail South Asia (a JV between Singapore’s PE firm Xander Group and Dutch institutional investor APG) concluding a USD 100 mn deal with TRIL for two retail malls – one each in Nagpur and Amritsar.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.
According to the World Bank, India ranks at 63rd among 190 countries, and the ranking is anticipated to improve further in the coming years backed by progressive government policies. Meanwhile, the real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience despite the bearish phase of the economy. Below is a lowdown of how the real estate story unfolded in 2019: