The affordable housing segment, which gained significant traction over the last few years, may also take a hit by COVID-19. The outbreak will significantly affect affordable housing’s target audience. With limited income and unemployment fears, buyers of affordable housing may defer purchase decisions, leading to an estimated 1-2% rise in unsold stock within this segment in 2020.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.
Beyond inventory statistics, and the customary positive outlook for the year ahead, 2019 has yet again underlined the need to read the pulse of the market dispassionately to learn why the tide has been going against. The lessons are equally true for both the builders and the buyers. Unfortunately, the sector does not seem to learn the lessons yet again. The testimony of the developers’ defiance is their guarded optimism for the year ahead, while dismissing the 2019 as yet another challenging year that has gone by.
The three southern cities collectively saw residential sales of 61,400 units between January and September 2019 as against 64,420 units sold in the first three quarters of 2018. MMR and Pune, on the contrary, saw the sale of nearly 93,930 units in 2019 against 70,740 units in the corresponding period in 2018. Altogether, the top 7 cities recorded sales of 2,02,200 units in 2019 till September, of which western cities comprised 46% overall share while southern region consisted of 30% share.
The festive season has traditionally been an active period for real estate sales as many buyers consider Navratri and Diwali an auspicious time to buy property. Like in previous years, developers this year have sweetened property deals – some up-front discounts, or more commonly 0% GST (which is in any case not charged on ready-to-move properties), waived stamp duty and registration charges, free reserved car parking, modular kitchens, etc.
Among the major factors contributing to the escalating ‘claustrophobia effect’ of shrinking apartment sizes, demand for affordable homes in metros tops the list. Also, buyers are increasingly looking to avail the government’s credit subsidy benefits for affordable housing. These require a home to be priced
Additionally, the fact that the corpus will be completely professionally-driven including real estate experts, banking or housing finance specialists, it is likely to move more smoothly and in the right direction with little scope for misadventure. These specialists will need to identify such projects that are affordable and middle-income projects and are in need of last-mile funding for completion. The government’s move to relax commercial borrowing for affordable housing is another welcome step.
The city with a penchant for villas is mostly moving towards the periphery locations. In those locations the land cost is still very affordable. The buyers, mostly local communities, are preferring these plotted villas. Since the developers do not have the construction finance to bother, they can even hold it in the wake of slow sales.
Even as India’s middle-class grapples with the prospect of an uncertain future in their careers and financial ability – the main drivers of housing demand – the rise of India’s super-rich continues unabated. According to Credit Suisse report, there were an estimated 3.42 lakh dollar-millionaires in India as on mid-2018 who collectively held around USD 6 trillion. It is forecast that 5.26 lakh Indian dollar millionaires’ wealth will be around USD 8.8 trillion by 2023. Market fluctuations make very little difference to the personal networth of these individuals.
Traditionally, the festive quarter fares better than the previous quarters of the year when it comes to housing sales – the combination of religious sentiment and festive deals and freebies is a potent mix during this part of the year. For instance, Q4 2015 saw 70,000 homes sold in the seven major cities. However, as tempting as it was for developers to believe that this was an unshakeable performance standard, it was certainly shaken just a year later. After demonetization (DeMo) was announced in this critical quarter in 2016, housing sales halved to 32,100 units.