The Union Budget 2022-23 lacked any fresh ideas as far as the real estate in general and the housing market in particular is concerned. Most of the announcements are more or less the extension of the old schemes and roadmaps. The euphoria of the industry stakeholders ahead of the budget turned into a deafening silence in the next few hours of budget speech.
Tracking the sentiment is not that easy in the business of Indian real estate. There is no ideal predictive model that could assess the sentiments of both the developers as well as the buyers. The leading voices of the sector has never been very consistent with their budget wish list and the post budget customary note. The most important stakeholders, the home buyers, are more often than not completely ignored when it comes to sentiment assessment post the Union Budget.
On the eve of every Union Budget the real estate stakeholders get into a huddle to set the narrative that could influence the fiscal policy. They are conscious of the fact that the business of real estate gets more affected by the fiscal policy than the recurring monetary policy that shapes the outcome of floating interest rates every now and then. A Track2Realty analysis.
Within the built environment of the Indian real estate there is still denial about too many parallels between the Indian and the Chinese real estate. Many even believe that the Indian economy is not that real estate dependent as the Chinese economy. Even when admitting the crisis in Indian real estate, it is diplomatically wrapped in the developer’s justification of not learning any lessons on part of the Indian developers.
2021 was expected to be the year of recovery for the Indian real estate that weathered the black swan of Covid in the preceding year. Throughout the year the developers put up a brave face and the industry data of the top listed developers was enough to keep the prophets of doomsday in silence. However, the closer look at the sector and the large universe of the developers raises more questions than what it could answer during the turbulent year. Track2Realty looks in to look ahead.
I often get amused when I get into the details of the industry survey that shouts at the top of its voice – “All is Well”. Some of these industry reports claiming the business to be witness to higher consumer sentiment are based on the feedback of connected parties like developers, banks, financial institutions and private equity players. All in all, it’s a family cycle where everyone is desperate to beg, borrow or steal for sale. The most important stakeholder – the home buyer – whose sentiment is being tracked is better left out in this mutual appreciation club of vested interests.
When it comes to the recovery of the asset class, the market doesn’t spread its gift with equal generosity. The historic high growth curve of the stock market post Covid crash in March 2020 didn’t make every company’s share valuable. Similarly, in real estate there are certainly some clear winners & losers during the pandemic, finds Track2Realty analysis.
Will the festive season of 2021 change the course of real estate is something that most of the analysts are curious to see. The festive season has just started and it is too early to guesstimate the exact sales volume & value growth at this point of time. But with a closer look at the Indian housing market one can probably vouchsafe that there are more catalysts of optimism than pessimism. How far this optimism is sentiment driven and to what extent the economic fundamentals support the business take-up is something that needs to be evaluated.
It is the story of a debt ridden real estate company that is financially overleveraged; gone beyond execution capabilities; has multi-city penetration; is into multiple businesses; and the promoters are just delaying the inevitable. The developer that you instantly recall is China’s Evergrande. It’s the talk of the town across the built environment of global real estate today. But wait! Has India not been witness to its own Evergrande moment (though on a smaller scale) in the past? Track2Realty speaks to cross section of industry analysts.
This raises a fundamental question as to whether wellness is possible only with the luxury housing or affordable housing too can incorporate it. Within the built environment of the Indian real estate it is generally accepted that wellness is an aspiration concept but it can be incorporated into affordable housing as well. This would require focusing on some of the key elements right from the planning stage. Some of the real estate companies with international exposure are now working towards cutting down their carbon footprint apart from focusing on the other aspects of wellness.