New homes supply and sales showed a significant improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Oct–Dec) in line with the ongoing economic recovery with government’ initiatives and increased market confidence providing an added growth impetus.
Beyond the pessimism & optimism and, to some extent, more than expected recovery post the Covid-19 lockdown, the fact remains that 2020 has been by and large the most unforgettable year for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. The old timers in the business even maintain that this has been even worse year than the global economic collapse after the Lehman crisis in 2008.
It is not just the fiscal performance or the stock market resilience that have elevated Godrej Properties to the coveted brand leadership across India. The performance has been remarkable and ever improving on various scale leading to better consumer experience and consumer connect. In a gloomy market of uncertainty, Godrej Properties looks most promising to meet the delivery commitments as well. Last, but not the least, while most of the corporate entities found it altogether challenging turf in the business of real estate, Godrej appears to be a natural real estate brand beyond its market presence in other businesses.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.
2020 hardly promises to be the #BestYearEver for the Indian real estate, simply because the sector has historically been arrogant to read the writing on the wall. They continue to live with their fancy illusion that this is just another cyclic slowdown. The raw statistics of ever increasing migration to the cities and the housing demand make them predict for self-belief that sooner than later the market will yet again turn out to be sellers’ market.
There has been a slump in the market. Huge unsold inventory has forced firms to not increase their rates. As a result, prices have remained range bound. With fewer launches, market is ready for homebuyers willing to take the buying decision. The unsold inventory during first nine months (July-September) of 2019 was 444,673 units, registering a small drop as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. While there has been a revival of sorts in sales since 2018, developers are still not out of the woods.
The success of the Embassy Parks REIT has given global investors strong reason to increase their stake in multiple commercial assets across the country so that these could be listed under REITs in the future. Some of these global institutional investors who are eyeing the country’s real estate market via REITs include Japan’s NikkoAm StraitsTrading Asia, US’ North Carolina Fund, Taiwan’s Eastspring Investments, Malaysia’s Hwang Asia Pacific REITs and Infrastructure Fund, and Canada-based Sentry Global.
Additionally, the fact that the corpus will be completely professionally-driven including real estate experts, banking or housing finance specialists, it is likely to move more smoothly and in the right direction with little scope for misadventure. These specialists will need to identify such projects that are affordable and middle-income projects and are in need of last-mile funding for completion. The government’s move to relax commercial borrowing for affordable housing is another welcome step.
Even as India’s middle-class grapples with the prospect of an uncertain future in their careers and financial ability – the main drivers of housing demand – the rise of India’s super-rich continues unabated. According to Credit Suisse report, there were an estimated 3.42 lakh dollar-millionaires in India as on mid-2018 who collectively held around USD 6 trillion. It is forecast that 5.26 lakh Indian dollar millionaires’ wealth will be around USD 8.8 trillion by 2023. Market fluctuations make very little difference to the personal networth of these individuals.
Indian real estate is still a viable and fairly safe long-term investment option. Investors with a short-term view on ‘instant returns’ need to look elsewhere, but most other asset classes are quite volatile in nature and will continue to remain so. Indian residential real estate is a long-time favourite of resident Indians and NRIs, and recent trends suggest a positive outlook for this asset class going forward. Property prices have bottomed out and cannot possibly reduce further, especially since construction costs are gradually heading north.