Real estate in general and its future growth in particular is defined by its demand drivers. It is relatively easier to forecast the demand drivers in the residential sector. Reason being that the economic activities indicate the migration of the workforce and hence inherent need for housing. However, to forecast the emerging economic activity, both sector wise and region wise, is more often than not guesstimate, finds Track2Realty.
Within the built environment of the Indian real estate there is still denial about too many parallels between the Indian and the Chinese real estate. Many even believe that the Indian economy is not that real estate dependent as the Chinese economy. Even when admitting the crisis in Indian real estate, it is diplomatically wrapped in the developer’s justification of not learning any lessons on part of the Indian developers.
2021 was expected to be the year of recovery for the Indian real estate that weathered the black swan of Covid in the preceding year. Throughout the year the developers put up a brave face and the industry data of the top listed developers was enough to keep the prophets of doomsday in silence. However, the closer look at the sector and the large universe of the developers raises more questions than what it could answer during the turbulent year. Track2Realty looks in to look ahead.
The cost of doing business per square feet has always been challenging in the top 10 cities of India. The ever increasing migration for jobs in these cities have made the housing affordability even bigger challenge. Critics are not cynical when they question as to what extent and till when these cities will continue to be filled up like a soda bottle. Aren’t our metro cities on the verge of a population blast? Come 2021 and Track2Realty analysis believes the infamous Coronavirus in a strange way has shown the way forward.
The Nifty Realty Index that touched a low of 162.13 on 19th May in the post Covid mayhem has now scaled up to 280.00 (First week of December). The BSE and Nifty also surged more than 50% since the March lows, thus making the Indian stock market one of the best performers across the world. India’s only REIT, Embassy Office Park that scaled down at INR 319 is back in the range of 350 with a forecast of crossing 400. The second REIT, Mindspace Business Pak that was over-subscribed 12.96 times in the month of August this year, is also on its growth curve.
The economists and the real estate analysts are unanimous over the inevitability of the real estate recovery in India. What is nevertheless being debated is when will the sector revive to its normal course of business. What is even more important is to assess what would be the shape of the recovery. In classical economic definition, three of the commonly used recovery shapes are V, U & L shapes. V-Shaped is a strong recovery after the debacle, U-Shaped is a slower and long-drawn recovery, while an L-Shaped aftermath is where the previous peak is not recovered.
Track2Realty picks up Investment Magnet Cities of India through a comprehensive pan-India survey. The idea is to identify the top real estate destinations for the home buyers in the country.
Bengaluru maintains the top position in office space leasing, with a share of 30% in gross leasing during Jan-September 2019. Bengaluru recorded gross absorption of 12.1 million sq feet during Jan-September 2019, a 7% increase from same period last year, as occupiers continue to ramp up. IT-BPM and technology companies together accounted for 36%. Engineering and manufacturing sector’s leasing accounted for 18% share. Occupiers are preleasing space, and even taking up space in refurbished grade B buildings, due to tight vacancies in the market amidst healthy demand. The city’s vacancy stood at 8.8% at the end of Q3 2019.
Colliers International foresees robust demand from GICs, with leasing by GICs across six major cities in India to be in the range of 32.5 million sq ft between 2019 and 2021. Over 2014-2018, occupiers leased about 53.0 million sq ft of office space in multi-tenanted buildings for their GICs. Bengaluru led the demand with about 20.1 million sq ft, followed by Delhi NCR and Hyderabad. Further, we found that companies from the engineering, energy and manufacturing sectors favoured Bengaluru, which accounted for 32% of GIC demand between 2014-2018.
Even as India’s middle-class grapples with the prospect of an uncertain future in their careers and financial ability – the main drivers of housing demand – the rise of India’s super-rich continues unabated. According to Credit Suisse report, there were an estimated 3.42 lakh dollar-millionaires in India as on mid-2018 who collectively held around USD 6 trillion. It is forecast that 5.26 lakh Indian dollar millionaires’ wealth will be around USD 8.8 trillion by 2023. Market fluctuations make very little difference to the personal networth of these individuals.