Track2Realty: The year 2012, which started on an unenthusiastic note due to the global as well domestic economic turmoil, is now showing initial signs of recovery. Amongst the larger world economies, the US economy recorded a GDP growth of 1.7% between April and June, slightly higher than earlier estimates of 1.5%.
Track2Realty: Cushman & Wakefield estimates commercial office space demand of over 180 million square feet (msf) in the next five years (2012 – 16) in the top 8 cities of the country. This was released in the annual publication entitled “Evolving Paradigm – Future of Indian Real Estate” in association with Global Real Estate Institute (GRI) at their India Summit 2012. The report also estimates the total expected supply for the next five years in these eight cities as 219. 6 million sqft, basis announced projects and current pace of construction; indicating a condition of excess supply in the coming few years.
Jones Lang LaSalle has a new report, Redefining Retail Investment, to coincide with the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) 2012 Retail Real Estate World Summit, taking place in Shanghai this week.
Jones Lang LaSalle’s REIS findings are in, and a closer look at the 1H12 data reveals relatively subdued activity during the period compared to 1H11. In 1H12, the top seven cities of India together recorded a 35% dip in absorption compared to 1H11. The contraction in demand caused developers to progress more slowly on their projects thereby aligning the supply with demand.
The RBI, on Tuesday, July 31, kept the repo rate or the rate at which banks borrow from RBI unchanged at 8% and also the reverse repo rate at which, the banks lend to RBI unchanged at 7%. However, it has lowered the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 23% from 24% earlier. The realty sector, reeling under liquidity pressure and low demand due to high interest rate, has reacted sharply over this status quo.
Growth in the property business in Asia Pacific this year will be driven by many countries and not just China as in the recent past, according to DTZ survey. The region’s solid performance will be supported by strong growth in the use of equity for investment as opposed to debt, intra-regional investment, and increasing willingness of banks to lend, the company says in its research report Money into Property 2012.
The economy is facing difficulties on several fronts, including declining GDP growth, high inflation, high fiscal and current account deficits and depreciation of the rupee. The poor performance of the stock market has attracted a lot of negative press in recent months and this was reflected in the commercial real estate market which remained tepid in Q2 2012, says a DTZ research.
The annual monsoons have always been perceived both as a rural blessing and an urban curse – they are good news for the agrarian sector and the bane of water-logging prone cities. However, this caricatured mind-set is breaking.
Realty sector may appear to be bullish and project that downside is over with rosy forecast ahead, yet the decline in fortune is far from being over. As a matter of fact, the learning in the last four years has made most of the leading players to restructure their project portfolio and shed the flab.
Anticipating a significant rate cut by the RBI, disappointed real estate community has ring alarm bells and forecast more slump due to the high interest rate regime. Pointing out that the capital and labour intensive sector plays a key role in employment generation and accelerating growth, industry body CREDAI says the government has also been losers of revenue due to neglect of the sector and risks attributed to real estate and the RBI advisories against lending to real estate have only harmed the sector and made housing costlier for consumers, apart from affecting the economy.