According to the World Bank, India ranks at 63rd among 190 countries, and the ranking is anticipated to improve further in the coming years backed by progressive government policies. Meanwhile, the real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience despite the bearish phase of the economy. Below is a lowdown of how the real estate story unfolded in 2019:
Beyond inventory statistics, and the customary positive outlook for the year ahead, 2019 has yet again underlined the need to read the pulse of the market dispassionately to learn why the tide has been going against. The lessons are equally true for both the builders and the buyers. Unfortunately, the sector does not seem to learn the lessons yet again. The testimony of the developers’ defiance is their guarded optimism for the year ahead, while dismissing the 2019 as yet another challenging year that has gone by.
While the commercial office sector will dominate Indian REIT listings for the next couple of years, retail and logistics REITs are sure to follow. However, Indian residential REITs remain at best a distant possibility. The draft Model Tenancy Act, 2019 will make rental housing a more attractive investment play – but for Indian residential REITs to succeed as they have in countries like Singapore and the US, rental yields on Indian housing need to significantly surpass the current 1-3%.
After witnessing a revival of sorts in 2018 housing sales have witnessed a growth of 14% in the first nine months (January-September) of 2019 as compared to the corresponding period in 2018, according to India Real Estate Market Update Q3 2019, released by JLL . The office segment witnessed strong leasing, registering a jump of 40% during the same period as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, the report added.
CapitaLand’s developments underway in India include 17.9 million sq ft of business park space in Bangalore, Chennai, Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Pune when completed. Another 7.2 million sq ft through forward purchases have been signed up and are under construction. This includes IT parks in Mumbai and Hyderabad, a seventh warehouse at Arshiya Free Trade Warehousing Zone, Panvel, near Navi Mumbai, and BlueRidge 3, an IT/ITES Special Economic Zone development in Hinjewadi Phase 1 in Pune. CapitaLand is also building up a logistics asset portfolio in India with 4.3 million sq ft planned for development.
Colliers International foresees robust demand from GICs, with leasing by GICs across six major cities in India to be in the range of 32.5 million sq ft between 2019 and 2021. Over 2014-2018, occupiers leased about 53.0 million sq ft of office space in multi-tenanted buildings for their GICs. Bengaluru led the demand with about 20.1 million sq ft, followed by Delhi NCR and Hyderabad. Further, we found that companies from the engineering, energy and manufacturing sectors favoured Bengaluru, which accounted for 32% of GIC demand between 2014-2018.
Better returns, a mature and transparent market are some of the factors that have made investors flock to the country’s commercial real estate. With commercial segment remaining the most favoured among all kinds of asset classes, high-net-worth investors and the uber-rich are now looking at pre-leased assets, primarily office assets, with hope.
I am today seriously wondering whether all the celebrating and self-congratulating developers have indeed got “Exclusive” draft of the policy of land acquisition in Kashmir? Does it include construction facing Dal Lake of Srinagar that is Green Belt? Have they done their business calculations and cost & benefit analysis over there? There are more questions than what the builders could answer at this point of time. But what could be vouchsafed is the fact that all these euphoric overtones are premature. None of the industry voices from the matured sectors with more potential to pull off in the State have displayed this kind of immaturity.
The last few years have witnessed increasing focus on the affordable housing segment.It remains a key segment for the Government towards its mission of ‘housing for all’. To provide further impetus to affordable housing segment, the Government has sanctioned over 81 lakh homes under PMAY Urban scheme with an investment of about 4.83 lakh crore.
A majority government at the Centre is gradually reviving private equity’s confidence in Indian real estate – especially the commercial sector. ANAROCK research indicates that PE players infused USD 580 mn into Indian real estate in the month of June, immediately after Modi 2.0 took charge.