The real estate developers across the country might be living in denial but the distress sale is a predominant reality in the Indian housing market. More and more Indian home buyers are actually getting better deals in the resale market. This is leading to a stressful situation for the developers reeling with the inventory overhang and yet not ready to cut down the prices.
The changes in the land laws in Jammu & Kashmir has mostly been debated from the political standpoint. However, it has a direct linkage with the way the property market would shape up in a tourist destination that has thus far been seen as a hostile destination. The moot point today is whether the changed land laws would lead to any tangible difference in the property market over there. Will the developers actually flock to land scouting in this part of the world?
The Nifty Realty Index that touched a low of 162.13 on 19th May in the post Covid mayhem has now scaled up to 280.00 (First week of December). The BSE and Nifty also surged more than 50% since the March lows, thus making the Indian stock market one of the best performers across the world. India’s only REIT, Embassy Office Park that scaled down at INR 319 is back in the range of 350 with a forecast of crossing 400. The second REIT, Mindspace Business Pak that was over-subscribed 12.96 times in the month of August this year, is also on its growth curve.
The economists and the real estate analysts are unanimous over the inevitability of the real estate recovery in India. What is nevertheless being debated is when will the sector revive to its normal course of business. What is even more important is to assess what would be the shape of the recovery. In classical economic definition, three of the commonly used recovery shapes are V, U & L shapes. V-Shaped is a strong recovery after the debacle, U-Shaped is a slower and long-drawn recovery, while an L-Shaped aftermath is where the previous peak is not recovered.
It was expected to be a future ready budget and the overtones in the power corridors were also self-congratulatory in advance. It finally turned out to be pretty ordinary budget for the real estate sector. The stakeholders are nevertheless looking for the silver lining here and there. The most critical stakeholder, the home buyer, is pretty disappointed with the Union Budget 2021-22.
In his budget wish list, Amit Modi, Director, ABA Corp & President (Elect), CREDAI Western UP, points out that the real estate sector in India has been through one of the most difficult periods last year due the pandemic effected slowdown in the economy. While there was an upward trajectory in the last quarter of year 2020, due to correction in prices, availability of affordable home loans and the general realization towards the importance of having an adequate shelter during the pandemic, but to seriously start the process of sector revival, there is an urgent and definitive need for reforms from the forthcoming Budget.
New homes supply and sales showed a significant improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Oct–Dec) in line with the ongoing economic recovery with government’ initiatives and increased market confidence providing an added growth impetus.
Beyond the pessimism & optimism and, to some extent, more than expected recovery post the Covid-19 lockdown, the fact remains that 2020 has been by and large the most unforgettable year for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. The old timers in the business even maintain that this has been even worse year than the global economic collapse after the Lehman crisis in 2008.
Ever since the lockdown was imposed in March 2020 with Coronavirus scare at its peak, it seems the built environment of the Indian real estate is experiencing the Placebo Effect. The Placebo Effect is when an improvement is observed, despite an individual receiving a placebo as opposed to active medical treatment. In medical fraternity, it is estimated that 1 in 3 people experience the placebo effect. It seems every stakeholder, barring the home buyers, is experiencing the Placebo Effect in the property market.
If the Indian real estate was gasping for breath since long, Cronavirus has further pushed it to the ventilator. Track2Realty in an online poll finds that the challenge is no more limited to the unsold inventory, liquidity crisis & buyers’ reluctance, but to keep the existing buyers stay afloat. Job losses and salary cut threatens to make foreclosure a reality now.