The Union Budget 2022-23 lacked any fresh ideas as far as the real estate in general and the housing market in particular is concerned. Most of the announcements are more or less the extension of the old schemes and roadmaps. The euphoria of the industry stakeholders ahead of the budget turned into a deafening silence in the next few hours of budget speech.
Tracking the sentiment is not that easy in the business of Indian real estate. There is no ideal predictive model that could assess the sentiments of both the developers as well as the buyers. The leading voices of the sector has never been very consistent with their budget wish list and the post budget customary note. The most important stakeholders, the home buyers, are more often than not completely ignored when it comes to sentiment assessment post the Union Budget.
The industry data of faster recovery and record home sales conceal more than it intends to reveal. The rosy outlook fails to address the fact that this is a K-shaped recovery where a handful of large developers with sound financials have grown at the cost of the large universe of the developers. More importantly, the sales registration data doesn’t differentiate between primary market sale and distress sale in the secondary market.
On the eve of every Union Budget the real estate stakeholders get into a huddle to set the narrative that could influence the fiscal policy. They are conscious of the fact that the business of real estate gets more affected by the fiscal policy than the recurring monetary policy that shapes the outcome of floating interest rates every now and then. A Track2Realty analysis.
Home buyers point out that it is not only lengthy litigation that defeats their cause but also the fact that the builder continues to challenge the orders of the District Commission in higher courts. Over and above that the builder can also file multiple false cases against the harassed home buyers. The home buyers hence demand that the way NCDRC admits the challenged judgment of the State Commissions on a case-to-case basis, the State Commissions should also adopt the same practice.
When it comes to the recovery of the asset class, the market doesn’t spread its gift with equal generosity. The historic high growth curve of the stock market post Covid crash in March 2020 didn’t make every company’s share valuable. Similarly, in real estate there are certainly some clear winners & losers during the pandemic, finds Track2Realty analysis.
Will the festive season of 2021 change the course of real estate is something that most of the analysts are curious to see. The festive season has just started and it is too early to guesstimate the exact sales volume & value growth at this point of time. But with a closer look at the Indian housing market one can probably vouchsafe that there are more catalysts of optimism than pessimism. How far this optimism is sentiment driven and to what extent the economic fundamentals support the business take-up is something that needs to be evaluated.
The changes in the land laws in Jammu & Kashmir has mostly been debated from the political standpoint. However, it has a direct linkage with the way the property market would shape up in a tourist destination that has thus far been seen as a hostile destination. The moot point today is whether the changed land laws would lead to any tangible difference in the property market over there. Will the developers actually flock to land scouting in this part of the world?
There is no denying that the world has changed for the real estate in this part of the market. Of course, there are acceptances with degree varying, denials and even reluctance to adapt to the new normal. However, what can’t be argued is the fact that the market forces are clearly signaling the paradigm shift from the existing denial & resistance to change.
It was expected to be a future ready budget and the overtones in the power corridors were also self-congratulatory in advance. It finally turned out to be pretty ordinary budget for the real estate sector. The stakeholders are nevertheless looking for the silver lining here and there. The most critical stakeholder, the home buyer, is pretty disappointed with the Union Budget 2021-22.