Projects worth INR 4,64,300 crore for a total of 575,900 units are already significantly behind schedule. These 5,75,900 units have been stuck since 2013 or before. However, what is even more disturbing than these staggering number is the fact that in many of the states RERA has been diluted to the extent that it allows the erring developers with the existing projects to get away with the fault lines.
The changes in the land laws in Jammu & Kashmir has mostly been debated from the political standpoint. However, it has a direct linkage with the way the property market would shape up in a tourist destination that has thus far been seen as a hostile destination. The moot point today is whether the changed land laws would lead to any tangible difference in the property market over there. Will the developers actually flock to land scouting in this part of the world?
The Nifty Realty Index that touched a low of 162.13 on 19th May in the post Covid mayhem has now scaled up to 280.00 (First week of December). The BSE and Nifty also surged more than 50% since the March lows, thus making the Indian stock market one of the best performers across the world. India’s only REIT, Embassy Office Park that scaled down at INR 319 is back in the range of 350 with a forecast of crossing 400. The second REIT, Mindspace Business Pak that was over-subscribed 12.96 times in the month of August this year, is also on its growth curve.
There is no denying that the world has changed for the real estate in this part of the market. Of course, there are acceptances with degree varying, denials and even reluctance to adapt to the new normal. However, what can’t be argued is the fact that the market forces are clearly signaling the paradigm shift from the existing denial & resistance to change.
New homes supply and sales showed a significant improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Oct–Dec) in line with the ongoing economic recovery with government’ initiatives and increased market confidence providing an added growth impetus.
Beyond the pessimism & optimism and, to some extent, more than expected recovery post the Covid-19 lockdown, the fact remains that 2020 has been by and large the most unforgettable year for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. The old timers in the business even maintain that this has been even worse year than the global economic collapse after the Lehman crisis in 2008.
For generations, real estate leaders were cautious in changing their business models. But in recent years there has been a significant change. So far the numbers have been on the lower side, but Covid 19, has initiated companies to adopt digital solutions at an unprecedented pace. According to a survey, digitisation is taking precedence across the sector and more than 90 percent of the occupiers and developers are aiming to bring a technological shift in their business operations within the next five years.
It is not just the fiscal performance or the stock market resilience that have elevated Godrej Properties to the coveted brand leadership across India. The performance has been remarkable and ever improving on various scale leading to better consumer experience and consumer connect. In a gloomy market of uncertainty, Godrej Properties looks most promising to meet the delivery commitments as well. Last, but not the least, while most of the corporate entities found it altogether challenging turf in the business of real estate, Godrej appears to be a natural real estate brand beyond its market presence in other businesses.
The affordable housing segment, which gained significant traction over the last few years, may also take a hit by COVID-19. The outbreak will significantly affect affordable housing’s target audience. With limited income and unemployment fears, buyers of affordable housing may defer purchase decisions, leading to an estimated 1-2% rise in unsold stock within this segment in 2020.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.