On the eve of every Union Budget the real estate stakeholders get into a huddle to set the narrative that could influence the fiscal policy. They are conscious of the fact that the business of real estate gets more affected by the fiscal policy than the recurring monetary policy that shapes the outcome of floating interest rates every now and then. A Track2Realty analysis.
With the vaccination drive in full swing, there is renewed optimism, and the country’s economic momentum seems to be picking up. In particular, the real estate sector is witnessing new interest from homebuyers as seen in Q1 FY22, spurred due to positive government policies, initiatives taken by the developers and pent-up consumer demands. This is a new phase of real estate growth, innovation, and investment, contributing towards making India the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
The economists and the real estate analysts are unanimous over the inevitability of the real estate recovery in India. What is nevertheless being debated is when will the sector revive to its normal course of business. What is even more important is to assess what would be the shape of the recovery. In classical economic definition, three of the commonly used recovery shapes are V, U & L shapes. V-Shaped is a strong recovery after the debacle, U-Shaped is a slower and long-drawn recovery, while an L-Shaped aftermath is where the previous peak is not recovered.
In the financial sector, housing finance is relatively a new concept as the government took interest in the last two decades to diminish the housing problem in India. However, the participation of banks and financial institutions in the housing credit sector has swelled and the sector itself has evolved over the years, fuelled also by the concurrent evolution in government regulations in the sector and real estate industry as a whole.
While the COVID-19 has by and large dented the confidence level of the real estate developers, Aditya Kushwaha, CEO & Director of Axis Ecorp believes there are silver lining for the players who are forward looking in their approach. In an exclusive interview with Track2Realty, Kushwaha asserts that the Work From Home trend would shift the focus from top metro cities to open spaces in and around the tourist destinations. He therefore urges the government to look at the Holiday Home segment as a priority sector.
The real estate developers had a sigh of relief when the Government of India heeded to their demands for declaring Coronavirus hit construction under Force Majeure. The Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured the sector to issue an advisory to States and Union Territories and their regulatory authorities to extend the registration and completion date Suo-Moto by six months for all registered projects expiring on or after March 25, 2020 without individual applications.
According to the World Bank, India ranks at 63rd among 190 countries, and the ranking is anticipated to improve further in the coming years backed by progressive government policies. Meanwhile, the real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience despite the bearish phase of the economy. Below is a lowdown of how the real estate story unfolded in 2019:
Beyond inventory statistics, and the customary positive outlook for the year ahead, 2019 has yet again underlined the need to read the pulse of the market dispassionately to learn why the tide has been going against. The lessons are equally true for both the builders and the buyers. Unfortunately, the sector does not seem to learn the lessons yet again. The testimony of the developers’ defiance is their guarded optimism for the year ahead, while dismissing the 2019 as yet another challenging year that has gone by.
The festive season has traditionally been an active period for real estate sales as many buyers consider Navratri and Diwali an auspicious time to buy property. Like in previous years, developers this year have sweetened property deals – some up-front discounts, or more commonly 0% GST (which is in any case not charged on ready-to-move properties), waived stamp duty and registration charges, free reserved car parking, modular kitchens, etc.
There has been a slump in the market. Huge unsold inventory has forced firms to not increase their rates. As a result, prices have remained range bound. With fewer launches, market is ready for homebuyers willing to take the buying decision. The unsold inventory during first nine months (July-September) of 2019 was 444,673 units, registering a small drop as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. While there has been a revival of sorts in sales since 2018, developers are still not out of the woods.