The real estate developers across the country might be living in denial but the distress sale is a predominant reality in the Indian housing market. More and more Indian home buyers are actually getting better deals in the resale market. This is leading to a stressful situation for the developers reeling with the inventory overhang and yet not ready to cut down the prices.
Projects worth INR 4,64,300 crore for a total of 575,900 units are already significantly behind schedule. These 5,75,900 units have been stuck since 2013 or before. However, what is even more disturbing than these staggering number is the fact that in many of the states RERA has been diluted to the extent that it allows the erring developers with the existing projects to get away with the fault lines.
It is single women and not the married ones who are the real demand drivers of the housing market in India. Contrary to the general perception that marriage is a catalyst for women to look up to house ownership, it is the single women across the cities of India that are more attracted to the property. The choices of single women are as much goaded by the safety of their own roof over head as with the investment horizon.
In his budget wish list, Amit Modi, Director, ABA Corp & President (Elect), CREDAI Western UP, points out that the real estate sector in India has been through one of the most difficult periods last year due the pandemic effected slowdown in the economy. While there was an upward trajectory in the last quarter of year 2020, due to correction in prices, availability of affordable home loans and the general realization towards the importance of having an adequate shelter during the pandemic, but to seriously start the process of sector revival, there is an urgent and definitive need for reforms from the forthcoming Budget.
If the Indian real estate was gasping for breath since long, Cronavirus has further pushed it to the ventilator. Track2Realty in an online poll finds that the challenge is no more limited to the unsold inventory, liquidity crisis & buyers’ reluctance, but to keep the existing buyers stay afloat. Job losses and salary cut threatens to make foreclosure a reality now.
It is in this backdrop that in a typical “Ravi Sinha Uncensored” tone I told a PR girl who called me for one such Press Release by one of the largest developers of Mumbai, “Listen! As a matter of principle I am not carrying any story on food distribution to construction workers. But wait! Please give my feedback to your client, “He or any other builder is not doing any charity; not worth beating its own trumpet. This is a national calamity and you are morally bound to do so. Such Press Releases only make you look really petty. You can weave this info into some other story once the dust settles and everything is normal. But glorifying humanitarian gesture at this point of time is at best Corona Tourism for Publicity which is highly deplorable.”
Private Equity funds, domestic and multi-national, have become major players in the Indian real estate market, investing tens of thousands of crores. While Blackstone and Brookfield have hitherto been largest foreign investors in Indian real estate, a gamut of Japanese Private Equity giants are also making waves. Heavyweight Japanese Corporations such as Mitsui Fudson, Mitsubishi Corporation, Sumitomo Corporation and Genkai Capital too have made big-ticket investments in Indian metro cities.
Apart from the top cities, Tier 2 & 3 cities are also on the radar of many PE funds which see these cities actively driving retail going forward. At least 36% (nearly USD 1 bn) retail-focused funds went to cities like Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Bhubaneshwar, Chandigarh, Nagpur and Mohali. In 2019, ANAROCK Capital was instrumental in Virtuous Retail South Asia (a JV between Singapore’s PE firm Xander Group and Dutch institutional investor APG) concluding a USD 100 mn deal with TRIL for two retail malls – one each in Nagpur and Amritsar.
I&L space take-up in 2019 was dominated by small-sized transactions (less than 50,000 sq. ft.), which held a share of about 42%. The share of medium-sized transactions (ranging between 50,000 sq. ft. and 1,00,000 sq. ft.) rose from 26% in 2018 to 30% in 2019. Large-sized deals (greater than 1,00,000 sq. ft.) accounted for 28% of the leasing activity during 2019. The number of large-sized deal closures in Hyderabad, in particular, doubled in 2019 as compared to 2018.
For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.