For the real estate, it seems the government message is that if you wish to revive than learn to survive on your own. Unfortunately, in a market loaded with housing inventory, added with the liquidity crunch, the over-supply could only be absorbed with the revival in demand. There has been no announcement as to how the government would ease the stuck up projects after its initial stressed funds.
2020 hardly promises to be the #BestYearEver for the Indian real estate, simply because the sector has historically been arrogant to read the writing on the wall. They continue to live with their fancy illusion that this is just another cyclic slowdown. The raw statistics of ever increasing migration to the cities and the housing demand make them predict for self-belief that sooner than later the market will yet again turn out to be sellers’ market.
According to the World Bank, India ranks at 63rd among 190 countries, and the ranking is anticipated to improve further in the coming years backed by progressive government policies. Meanwhile, the real estate sector has shown remarkable resilience despite the bearish phase of the economy. Below is a lowdown of how the real estate story unfolded in 2019:
Despite repeated attempts by Track2Realty, none of the developers with projects in the worst hit areas are ready to speak on camera. All of them are rather defiant that the construction ban is unfortunate disruptions and adversely affects the project timelines. The moot point nevertheless is can the builders in their collective consciousness shrug off the responsibility now? Do they wake up only when the NGT slaps the sector with construction ban? Can’t they switch to responsible urbanisation for future generations?These questions may not bother them but what they can’t afford to ignore is whether or not the housing sector in Delhi NCR would be paralysed if the city is not made worth breathing and worth living?” Unfortunately, there are more questions than what any of the stakeholders would like to answer with some honesty.
After witnessing a revival of sorts in 2018 housing sales have witnessed a growth of 14% in the first nine months (January-September) of 2019 as compared to the corresponding period in 2018, according to India Real Estate Market Update Q3 2019, released by JLL . The office segment witnessed strong leasing, registering a jump of 40% during the same period as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, the report added.
The festive season has traditionally been an active period for real estate sales as many buyers consider Navratri and Diwali an auspicious time to buy property. Like in previous years, developers this year have sweetened property deals – some up-front discounts, or more commonly 0% GST (which is in any case not charged on ready-to-move properties), waived stamp duty and registration charges, free reserved car parking, modular kitchens, etc.
India’s commercial office segment has been the favourite asset class of institutional investors over the years. They have allocated USD 17.6 bn in the form of direct investments during 2005-2019. JLL research indicates that 294 mn sq. ft. of office stock would be eligible for REIT. This would translate to an additional investment opportunity of USD 35 bn in near term.
In the April-June 2019 quarter, India’s GDP grew only by 5% – the slowest pace in over six years. Consumers are spending less on everything from FMCG to automobiles – and, of course, real estate. Naturally, the sector eyes RBI’s monetary policy for cuts in the key lending rates to support the various measures taken by the government to boost consumption sentiment.
There has been a slump in the market. Huge unsold inventory has forced firms to not increase their rates. As a result, prices have remained range bound. With fewer launches, market is ready for homebuyers willing to take the buying decision. The unsold inventory during first nine months (July-September) of 2019 was 444,673 units, registering a small drop as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. While there has been a revival of sorts in sales since 2018, developers are still not out of the woods.
Colliers International foresees robust demand from GICs, with leasing by GICs across six major cities in India to be in the range of 32.5 million sq ft between 2019 and 2021. Over 2014-2018, occupiers leased about 53.0 million sq ft of office space in multi-tenanted buildings for their GICs. Bengaluru led the demand with about 20.1 million sq ft, followed by Delhi NCR and Hyderabad. Further, we found that companies from the engineering, energy and manufacturing sectors favoured Bengaluru, which accounted for 32% of GIC demand between 2014-2018.