In the financial sector, housing finance is relatively a new concept as the government took interest in the last two decades to diminish the housing problem in India. However, the participation of banks and financial institutions in the housing credit sector has swelled and the sector itself has evolved over the years, fuelled also by the concurrent evolution in government regulations in the sector and real estate industry as a whole.
Ever since the lockdown was imposed in March 2020 with Coronavirus scare at its peak, it seems the built environment of the Indian real estate is experiencing the Placebo Effect. The Placebo Effect is when an improvement is observed, despite an individual receiving a placebo as opposed to active medical treatment. In medical fraternity, it is estimated that 1 in 3 people experience the placebo effect. It seems every stakeholder, barring the home buyers, is experiencing the Placebo Effect in the property market.
The statistics are scary for any salaried class across the cities of India who has an EMI to pay for his home purchase. The Indian Chamber of Commerce has estimated that the real estate would be witness to 65% defaults from the buyers of under construction projects due to Coronavirus hit lockdown. The estimation is not without its logical reasons. A CII snap poll of the CEOs finds that 52 percent of the companies surveyed foresee job losses, in their respective sectors.
If the Indian real estate was gasping for breath since long, Cronavirus has further pushed it to the ventilator. Track2Realty in an online poll finds that the challenge is no more limited to the unsold inventory, liquidity crisis & buyers’ reluctance, but to keep the existing buyers stay afloat. Job losses and salary cut threatens to make foreclosure a reality now.
For generations, real estate leaders were cautious in changing their business models. But in recent years there has been a significant change. So far the numbers have been on the lower side, but Covid 19, has initiated companies to adopt digital solutions at an unprecedented pace. According to a survey, digitisation is taking precedence across the sector and more than 90 percent of the occupiers and developers are aiming to bring a technological shift in their business operations within the next five years.
Catering to India’s housing demand, SOBHA is the only Indian real estate company to make it to this prestigious list of growth drivers for the APAC region among other construction companies listed. The evaluation was based on companies having: revenue of at least $100,000 generated in 2015; revenue of at least $1m generated in 2018; being independent; headquartered in one of 11 territories in Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines) and whose revenue growth between 2015 and 2018 was primarily organic.
The affordable housing segment, which gained significant traction over the last few years, may also take a hit by COVID-19. The outbreak will significantly affect affordable housing’s target audience. With limited income and unemployment fears, buyers of affordable housing may defer purchase decisions, leading to an estimated 1-2% rise in unsold stock within this segment in 2020.
Private Equity funds, domestic and multi-national, have become major players in the Indian real estate market, investing tens of thousands of crores. While Blackstone and Brookfield have hitherto been largest foreign investors in Indian real estate, a gamut of Japanese Private Equity giants are also making waves. Heavyweight Japanese Corporations such as Mitsui Fudson, Mitsubishi Corporation, Sumitomo Corporation and Genkai Capital too have made big-ticket investments in Indian metro cities.
Apart from the top cities, Tier 2 & 3 cities are also on the radar of many PE funds which see these cities actively driving retail going forward. At least 36% (nearly USD 1 bn) retail-focused funds went to cities like Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Bhubaneshwar, Chandigarh, Nagpur and Mohali. In 2019, ANAROCK Capital was instrumental in Virtuous Retail South Asia (a JV between Singapore’s PE firm Xander Group and Dutch institutional investor APG) concluding a USD 100 mn deal with TRIL for two retail malls – one each in Nagpur and Amritsar.
I&L space take-up in 2019 was dominated by small-sized transactions (less than 50,000 sq. ft.), which held a share of about 42%. The share of medium-sized transactions (ranging between 50,000 sq. ft. and 1,00,000 sq. ft.) rose from 26% in 2018 to 30% in 2019. Large-sized deals (greater than 1,00,000 sq. ft.) accounted for 28% of the leasing activity during 2019. The number of large-sized deal closures in Hyderabad, in particular, doubled in 2019 as compared to 2018.