India’s commercial office segment has been the favourite asset class of institutional investors over the years. They have allocated USD 17.6 bn in the form of direct investments during 2005-2019. JLL research indicates that 294 mn sq. ft. of office stock would be eligible for REIT. This would translate to an additional investment opportunity of USD 35 bn in near term.
In the April-June 2019 quarter, India’s GDP grew only by 5% – the slowest pace in over six years. Consumers are spending less on everything from FMCG to automobiles – and, of course, real estate. Naturally, the sector eyes RBI’s monetary policy for cuts in the key lending rates to support the various measures taken by the government to boost consumption sentiment.
The consecutive rate cuts have been a succor for the real estate sector thereby making it the most opportune time for buying homes. This has been reflected in the continuous improvement in the residential sales that registered a 14% Y-o-Y growth in sales during January- September 2019 as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.
Bengaluru maintains the top position in office space leasing, with a share of 30% in gross leasing during Jan-September 2019. Bengaluru recorded gross absorption of 12.1 million sq feet during Jan-September 2019, a 7% increase from same period last year, as occupiers continue to ramp up. IT-BPM and technology companies together accounted for 36%. Engineering and manufacturing sector’s leasing accounted for 18% share. Occupiers are preleasing space, and even taking up space in refurbished grade B buildings, due to tight vacancies in the market amidst healthy demand. The city’s vacancy stood at 8.8% at the end of Q3 2019.
There has been a slump in the market. Huge unsold inventory has forced firms to not increase their rates. As a result, prices have remained range bound. With fewer launches, market is ready for homebuyers willing to take the buying decision. The unsold inventory during first nine months (July-September) of 2019 was 444,673 units, registering a small drop as compared to the corresponding period in 2018. While there has been a revival of sorts in sales since 2018, developers are still not out of the woods.
Among the major factors contributing to the escalating ‘claustrophobia effect’ of shrinking apartment sizes, demand for affordable homes in metros tops the list. Also, buyers are increasingly looking to avail the government’s credit subsidy benefits for affordable housing. These require a home to be priced
There is no simple yardstick to calculate the exact number of units and the actual funds that are needed to complete them. Each delayed project is different in size, stage of completion, city and micro-location, etc. Also, various methodologies are used to reach an approximate number. After considering the government’s caveats – non-inclusion of projects under NCLT, and inclusion of mid and affordable units only, ANAROCK has shortlisted units launched in 2013 or before.
Additionally, the fact that the corpus will be completely professionally-driven including real estate experts, banking or housing finance specialists, it is likely to move more smoothly and in the right direction with little scope for misadventure. These specialists will need to identify such projects that are affordable and middle-income projects and are in need of last-mile funding for completion. The government’s move to relax commercial borrowing for affordable housing is another welcome step.
Traditionally, the festive quarter fares better than the previous quarters of the year when it comes to housing sales – the combination of religious sentiment and festive deals and freebies is a potent mix during this part of the year. For instance, Q4 2015 saw 70,000 homes sold in the seven major cities. However, as tempting as it was for developers to believe that this was an unshakeable performance standard, it was certainly shaken just a year later. After demonetization (DeMo) was announced in this critical quarter in 2016, housing sales halved to 32,100 units.
Indian real estate is still a viable and fairly safe long-term investment option. Investors with a short-term view on ‘instant returns’ need to look elsewhere, but most other asset classes are quite volatile in nature and will continue to remain so. Indian residential real estate is a long-time favourite of resident Indians and NRIs, and recent trends suggest a positive outlook for this asset class going forward. Property prices have bottomed out and cannot possibly reduce further, especially since construction costs are gradually heading north.