Track2Realty Exclusive: If SMEs presence is any indication of the scope of commercial property in the given region, Delhi-NCR’s east coast can easily claim to be a vibrant market for the commercial property. However, the tag of an affordable zone has till very recently been the reason why big ticket commercial investment did not fell into Ghaziabad, stretch of NH 24 or even Noida to a large extent.
Track2Realty: Prime office space absorption in the Delhi National Capital…
In the post-pandemic era, demand recovery in the office market has been swift, following a steep ‘V-shaped’ recovery trajectory. After subdued demand in 2020 & 2021, leasing activity had fully bounced back by 2022. In fact, since 2022, each year has been witnessing new all-time-high Grade A office space uptake at India level. With strong, consistent demand, average rentals have also surpassed the pre-pandemic levels (2019) across all the six major office markets for the first time in 2024. The rental recovery in the Indian office market, albeit relatively slower than the demand recovery trajectory has finally been fully complete, thus forming an elongated ‘U-shaped’ pattern.
The western cities of Ahmedabad and Mumbai, along with the southern tech hub of Bengaluru, all experienced healthy price appreciation in the 15-21% range whereas Chennai in south and Kolkata in east saw robust growth of 22% compared to the previous year, indicating strong economic activity and housing demand in these metros. This trend points to sustained demand in these economically vital centers. Pune, often seen as a more affordable alternative to Mumbai, also saw an 18% increase, suggesting it’s maintaining its appeal for homebuyers while still seeing significant price growth.
Mumbai recorded the highest potential SM REIT-ready completed office stock of ~75 mn. sq. ft. as of June’24, with around 10+ mn. sq. ft. of upcoming supply by 2026. Delhi-NCR recorded a completed SM REIT-ready potential stock of 70+ mn. sq. ft., followed by Bengaluru with 50+ mn. sq. ft. and Hyderabad with 30+ mn. sq. ft.. It is estimated that cumulatively, Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru and Hyderabad could add an additional supply of potential SM REIT-worthy stock of ~36 mn. sq. ft. by 2026. Other cities such as Pune, Kolkata, and Chennai recorded 25+ mn sq. ft. of completed supply as of June’24. It is estimated that Pune, Kolkata and Chennai would cumulatively record additional supply of potential SM REIT-worthy stock of ~14 mn. sq. ft. over the next two years.
ICRA estimates the industrial and warehouse logistics park (IWLP) supply to grow by 13-14% YoY in FY2025 in the eight primary markets to around 424 million sq. ft. Moreover, the absorption is estimated to increase to 47 million sq. ft. in FY2025 (90% of incremental supply addition) from 37 million sq. ft. in FY2024, supported by strong consumption-led demand. The vacancy in the eight primary markets stood at 10% in FY2024 and is likely to remain at a similar level in FY2025.
Office market well placed to cross 50 million square feet of absorption in 2024, third year in a row. Q2 2024 saw 15.8 million square feet of leasing across the top 6 cities. Developer confidence remains strong with 13.2 million square feet of completions in Q2 2024. With 52% cumulative share in Q2 2024, Bengaluru and Mumbai drive India office demand. Technology and Engineering & manufacturing sectors account 45% of quarterly demand, highest flex space activity in any quarter.
Between April and June 2024, residential supply witnessed the highest growth rate in the last 24 months, driven by the increasing availability of under-construction properties, shared the recently published PropIndex Report (April-June 2024) by Magicbricks, India’s leading real estate platform. According to the report, the supply of under-construction properties has increased by 11.7% QoQ, while prices have risen by 15.2% QoQ between April-June 2024. This surge has resulted in prices of under-construction properties surpassing those of ready-to-move properties in several cities such as Gurugram, Mumbai, Noida and Thane.
Of the eight major cities, Pune witnessed the steepest drop in unsold inventory levels. The 10% YoY decline in unsold units, highlights strong housing demand across the city. The reduction in unsold units coincides with a major 13% annual rise in average housing prices. This price growth was driven by substantial launches in the high-end and luxury segments. Key localities like Camp and Baner witnessed significant YoY price increases, ranging between 20-23%.
With global corporates increasingly seeking to optimize resources, maximize savings, and drive growth, India offers a compelling proposition. During Q1 2024, India continued to witness traction in GCC leasing activity. A significant 5 million square feet (msf) of leasing activity by GCCs, represented 37% of total office leasing across the top six cities. Looking ahead, GCCs are projected to lease between 45-50 msf of office space in the next two years, constituting around 40% of total demand.