The residential sector is currently undergoing a bullish phase, characterised by a convergence of factors that foster an extremely favourable ecosystem. As we progress into 2024, we anticipate that both sales and new property launches will sustain the sector’s buoyancy. Despite the potential challenges posed by escalating land costs and limited funding options for early-stage projects, the robust underlying market fundamentals are expected to propel residential activity well above the average trend witnessed in the previous five years.
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Continuing its upward trajectory, India’s top eight primary residential markets witnessed a strong demand during January-March (Q1 2024) this year with sales rising by 68 per cent in value terms to nearly Rs 1.11 lakh crore, according to a report by PropTiger.com.
Global Capability Centres (GCCs) accounted for a share of one-third in the overall India office leasing in Jan- Mar ’24. Within the GCCs space take-up, E&M companies contributed to over one-fourth share, followed by automobile firms. Bangalore led the chart for GCC leasing, boasting a 60% share, followed by Hyderabad with 26% and Delhi-NCR with 9%. Notably, 38% of the large-sized deals (exceeding 100,000 sq. ft.) were secured by GCCs during this period, underscoring their significant impact on the office leasing landscape.
Recoveries in real estate topped the list, followed by the road sector thanks to several policy interventions, turnaround in these industries as also an overall positive macroeconomic. ”Real estate is seen to recover 77-82% of the acquired debt (by asset reconstruction companies) over eight years followed by highway tolling with a recovery of 58-63 per cent,” the study noted.
The report highlights a continued uptrend in aggregate demand across the top 13 cities between January and March 2024, registering a robust growth of 6.9% QoQ. Moreover, after a period of relatively subdued supply, there has been a modest 0.9% QoQ increase this quarter. Despite this, the demand continues to outstrip supply, resulting in a 2.9% QoQ increase in residential prices across these 13 cities. Noida (7.4% QoQ), Greater Noida (7.2% QoQ), and Chennai (5.5% QoQ) recorded the highest appreciation in property prices.
Bengaluru and Hyderabad emerged as frontrunners for demand of Grade A office space in Q1 2024, cumulatively accounting for more than half of the India leasing activity. The office market of Hyderabad especially demonstrated a strong momentum with 2.2x space uptake in Q1 2024 as compared to the corresponding quarter last year. This demand was driven by Healthcare & Pharma and Technology sectors. Amongst other major office markets, Mumbai too experienced a notable surge in leasing activity, an impressive 90% YoY rise in Q1 2024.
The vehicle pools are expected to continue their stable performance in the medium term, given the strong domestic economic cycle; financiers would also ramp up the collection efforts in Q4 of the fiscal. However, the impact of the current fluctuations in global fuel prices would be a key monitorable. Microfinance institutions embraced technology-driven collections, post the Covid-19 pandemic, showing positive signs and healthy performance. Secured Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) pools have outperformed unsecured SME pools in terms of collection efficiency and asset quality. Furthermore, the delinquencies in the securitised personal loans pools have remained range-bound, with 90+dpd between 1.6% and 3.4%.
2024 is anticipated to be a more dynamic year for the both the Asia Pacific real estate markets as well as capital in the region remaining the dominant investor in global real estate. The ability to act quickly, dig deeply into markets and sectors to identify value, and forge productive partnerships will be key to making the most of the region’s diversity and increased opportunity, claims a report by Colliers.
The overall leasing by luxury brands across the formats stood at 0.6 mn. sq. ft. in 2023, at almost 170% Y-o-Y growth. While High Streets constituted a 45% share in the overall luxury retail leasing in 2023, luxury brands’ stores in Malls followed at 40% and standalone stores accounted for the remaining 15%. This surge in leasing has been accompanied by the entry and expansion of various international luxury fashion, watch and jewellery brands across different locations. The eight cities tracked for leasing include Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Pune, Ahmedabad, Chennai, and Hyderabad.
The outlook for construction costs remains stable but cautious, as market volatility is likely to persist in 2023 along with monetary tightening, continued high inflation, a possibility of a recession in developed economies and geopolitical turmoil-related challenges going forward. Therefore, CBRE forecasts a marginal rise in the overall construction costs during 2023 across cities, with Mumbai likely to witness a sharper rise.