Track2Realty Exclusive-Yearly Analysis: In a market where the five largest firms saw 75 per cent erosion in their combined market capitalization, burdened with debt and struggling with poor growth, there are few lessons these realty companies have been forced to learn the hard way.
Track2Realty: The year 2012 witnessed subdued interest in real estate due to inflationary pressures and rising interest rates in the country, coupled with the on-going economic crisis in the Eurozone and US.
Price rationalisation has always been a tricky issue in real estate business where demand and supply dynamics drive the market more than any other parameter. The fact that real estate is not a perishable commodity and mostly a business of deep pockets, holding of inventory many a time makes more sense than hard sell keeping in mind the pipeline visibility.
Revenues of top-25 realty companies declined 9.30% in Q4FY12, mainly on account of low sales off-take due to higher prices and higher mortgage rates, says a Knight Frank India Research on Economy and Realty at glance. The study says the Realty Index on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has dropped by more than 26% during the last one year compared to a 10% fall in the Sensex during the last fiscal year.
While buying a house majority of the Indians have now matured to pay for ready-to-move property than a castle in the air. No wonder, despite the high appreciation potential, the new launched projects have few takers and there is hardly any market for a pre-launch offer. Thanks to the poor delivery of the real estate developers, unmet commitments and execution risk involved, at least the end users are not interested in new launches anymore.
Real estate companies reeling under the bad debt and falling sales graph are expected to record yet another bearish quarterly results with most of the listed companies’ shares already in the red. Listed real estate companies represented by the Realty Index on BSE have witnessed a fall of 1.7 per cent over the past one month.
Land is scarce and the only way in urbanisation is to go up where more FSI/FAR would mean increasing the supply and bringing the price down, goes an old philosophy of the Indian developers. In reality, nearly all the high rises across the Indian cities are high-end luxury projects and seem to fulfil the aspirational needs of the Richie Rich.
During the economic downturn of 2008, while the other neighbouring and glamorous property market of Bangalore and Hyderabad fell by 24-29 per cent, the Chennai market fell only 8.3 per cent. Limited supply of land and pent-up demand is how NHB’s Residex defines Chennai property market.
As far as IPOs are concerned, out of the 132 IPOs lined up, the largest number -15 -are from the real estate sector.
It is not just strange, it is ironic. When the facts and indications are all misleading, investor in the Indian market have no choice but to keep the fingers crossed and it is precisely the reason what is hurting the realty stocks, finds Track2Realty.