The affordable housing segment, which gained significant traction over the last few years, may also take a hit by COVID-19. The outbreak will significantly affect affordable housing’s target audience. With limited income and unemployment fears, buyers of affordable housing may defer purchase decisions, leading to an estimated 1-2% rise in unsold stock within this segment in 2020.
I&L space take-up in 2019 was dominated by small-sized transactions (less than 50,000 sq. ft.), which held a share of about 42%. The share of medium-sized transactions (ranging between 50,000 sq. ft. and 1,00,000 sq. ft.) rose from 26% in 2018 to 30% in 2019. Large-sized deals (greater than 1,00,000 sq. ft.) accounted for 28% of the leasing activity during 2019. The number of large-sized deal closures in Hyderabad, in particular, doubled in 2019 as compared to 2018.
The three southern cities collectively saw residential sales of 61,400 units between January and September 2019 as against 64,420 units sold in the first three quarters of 2018. MMR and Pune, on the contrary, saw the sale of nearly 93,930 units in 2019 against 70,740 units in the corresponding period in 2018. Altogether, the top 7 cities recorded sales of 2,02,200 units in 2019 till September, of which western cities comprised 46% overall share while southern region consisted of 30% share.
After witnessing a revival of sorts in 2018 housing sales have witnessed a growth of 14% in the first nine months (January-September) of 2019 as compared to the corresponding period in 2018, according to India Real Estate Market Update Q3 2019, released by JLL . The office segment witnessed strong leasing, registering a jump of 40% during the same period as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, the report added.
According to the report titled “The Herald of a New Chapter: Student Accommodation in India”, the Student Housing/Co-Living space is expected to witness an investment worth USD 700 million and an addition of 0.6 million beds by 2023 across the country. The Student Housing segment is witnessing rapid growth across all the major markets in the country and expected to witness a growth of 36 percent between 2019 to 2023.
India’s commercial office segment has been the favourite asset class of institutional investors over the years. They have allocated USD 17.6 bn in the form of direct investments during 2005-2019. JLL research indicates that 294 mn sq. ft. of office stock would be eligible for REIT. This would translate to an additional investment opportunity of USD 35 bn in near term.
CapitaLand’s developments underway in India include 17.9 million sq ft of business park space in Bangalore, Chennai, Gurgaon, Hyderabad and Pune when completed. Another 7.2 million sq ft through forward purchases have been signed up and are under construction. This includes IT parks in Mumbai and Hyderabad, a seventh warehouse at Arshiya Free Trade Warehousing Zone, Panvel, near Navi Mumbai, and BlueRidge 3, an IT/ITES Special Economic Zone development in Hinjewadi Phase 1 in Pune. CapitaLand is also building up a logistics asset portfolio in India with 4.3 million sq ft planned for development.
The success of the Embassy Parks REIT has given global investors strong reason to increase their stake in multiple commercial assets across the country so that these could be listed under REITs in the future. Some of these global institutional investors who are eyeing the country’s real estate market via REITs include Japan’s NikkoAm StraitsTrading Asia, US’ North Carolina Fund, Taiwan’s Eastspring Investments, Malaysia’s Hwang Asia Pacific REITs and Infrastructure Fund, and Canada-based Sentry Global.
There is no simple yardstick to calculate the exact number of units and the actual funds that are needed to complete them. Each delayed project is different in size, stage of completion, city and micro-location, etc. Also, various methodologies are used to reach an approximate number. After considering the government’s caveats – non-inclusion of projects under NCLT, and inclusion of mid and affordable units only, ANAROCK has shortlisted units launched in 2013 or before.
Indian real estate is still a viable and fairly safe long-term investment option. Investors with a short-term view on ‘instant returns’ need to look elsewhere, but most other asset classes are quite volatile in nature and will continue to remain so. Indian residential real estate is a long-time favourite of resident Indians and NRIs, and recent trends suggest a positive outlook for this asset class going forward. Property prices have bottomed out and cannot possibly reduce further, especially since construction costs are gradually heading north.