It is easy to criticize the Indian real estate sector for its narrative, or the lack of it. But it takes some thorough understanding of the business, its ROI cycle, its historical legacies and multiple other factors to find method into the madness. We explore how the real estate can create its own effective narrative like some of the other matured industries.
Browsing: Myth & Reality
There are multiple factors why the home sales in monsoons are subdued. One obvious reason is that the Indians traditionally don’t make any high value purchases after Akshay Tirtiya and before Ganesh Chaturthi. Since a home is the most emotional & aspirational product; is life’s biggest purchase; and is in most of the case for the lifetime; the Indians prefer to wait till the beginning of the festive season. Inauspicious period of Shraddh and Pitripaksh also falls during the monsoon season, where the traditional belief is that any new purchase will invite the curse of the ancestors.
With home loan interest rates below 7 per cent, an impression has gained ground that this is the best time to buy a house. Track2Realty takes a closer look at the economic fundamentals that suggest the interest rates are one of the sales catalysts and there are many variables to consider.
The Nifty Realty Index that touched a low of 162.13 on 19th May in the post Covid mayhem has now scaled up to 280.00 (First week of December). The BSE and Nifty also surged more than 50% since the March lows, thus making the Indian stock market one of the best performers across the world. India’s only REIT, Embassy Office Park that scaled down at INR 319 is back in the range of 350 with a forecast of crossing 400. The second REIT, Mindspace Business Pak that was over-subscribed 12.96 times in the month of August this year, is also on its growth curve.
After nearly two-and-half years since RERA deployment across the country, the Centre’s aim to enforce it in each state to regulate the Indian real estate sector has picked up momentum. There has been a 40% growth in project registrations under RERA in a year across the country – from around 32,306 projects in end of September 2018 to nearly 45,307 projects as on 5th October 2019.
In the late 2010, buyers were largely in the age groups of 35-45 years and 45-55 years, but the share of homebuyers in the 25-35 years age group was minimal. However, improved tax benefits motivated more working youths in this age bracket to opt for home loans. Millennials predominantly favoured paying EMIs for buying a home over the ‘dead’ expense of rentals.
The Indian housing market is a vicious cycle of broken promises, trust deficit, sulking participants and non-delivery. Statistics only tell you half the story. For the developers, market trackers and the government agencies it is all about numbers – how many units have not been delivered. What these raw statistics don’t tell you that there is a sordid saga of drying emotions of one family with each housing unit. Probably the stakeholders are least bothered about the plight of an average middle class home buyer who has exhausted his lifetime savings, taken up home loan and now reeling under the burden of both the EMI and the rent.
While consolidation has been an ongoing phenomenon for some time, recent mergers, acquisitions and joint developments are underscoring this trend like never before. The Indian residential sector saw a series of disruptions in the last two to three years, with revolutionary reforms like DeMo, RERA and GST remarkably altering the way real estate business is conducted. A natural by-product of this upheaval was consolidation, with fly-by-night developers completely vanishing and small players merging with big ones.
This home buyers’ outburst over the media hype & industry reaction with reference to reduced GST is not an exception. Across the country the home buyers are questioning how the GST reduction has made the houses affordable in the cities where the jobless growth is fast turning into job loss de-growth. This is over and above the fact that the property prices are way beyond the affordability index.
Track2Realty approached to a number of real estate developers who are offering assured returns. Though all of them refused to speak ‘on record’ but privately they admit that their assured returns have failed due to market dynamics than intentional cheating.